The Tamil Nadu Assembly has been summoned to meet on June 28 by Governor Banwarilal Purohit.
The House will adjourn on the first day after paying homage to deceased MLAs from Sulur Kanakaraj( AIADMK) and Vikhravandi Radhamani (DMK).
On June 29, it is scheduled to take up the no-confidence motion given notice against Speaker P Dhanapal by Leader of the Opposition and DMK president M K Stalin.
The Edappadi K Palanisami which carried on with working majority till recently, has managed to secure its position by winning nine out of the 22 Assembly seats for which by-elections were held along with the Lok Sabha polls.
Its current strength is 121 in a house of 235. However, since the polls ,the Nanguneri has fallen vacant following the election of Congress member Vasanth Kumar to the Lok Sabha. Likewise, Sulur and Vikhravandi members have died since then.
The current strength is therefore only 232 and the half way mark is 117. The AIADMK has a thin, but comfortable majority with a strength of 121, including the Speaker. However. the Speaker cannot vote in the motion against him.
The no-trust motion was given notice by Stalin to stall Dhanapal from taking steps to disqualify four more AIADMK members who worked for breakaway Amma Makkal Munnetra Kazahagam leader T T V Dinakaran in the recent polls. The Supreme Court has stayed the disqualification proceedings.
If these potentially dissident four MLAs as well as a couple of more vote for the no-trust motion against the Speaker, the Government will be forced to resign.
The DMK on its own cannot bring down the Government as it has only 100 MLAs , even after winning 13 Assembly seats in the bypolls. Its ally Congress has also lost one MLA in Vasanth Kumar getting elected to the Lok Sabha and its strength is only seven. The IUML has one seat. Together, this front has only 108, nine short of half way mark.
It will be touch and go. The only strength of the Edappadi Government is that no sitting member, including those from the DMK, wants a mid-term poll as the House has a tenure till 2021.
The meeting, the first after the Lok Sabha polls, is expected to be stormy as the opposition is sure to pillory the Government over its failure to take steps to tackle the water crisis in Chennai and other districts in State despite the failure of the monsoon.
The opposition is also expected to raise other burning issues like the hydrocarbon project in the Cauvery delta region and the eight-lane Chennai-Salem express way which are being implemented in the face of opposition by farmers.
The most important business is demands for grants which could not be debated and voted on though the budget was presented by Finance Minister O Pannerselvam last March. Thereafter, the polls intervened. Therefore, provided the Government survives the no-trust motion against the Speaker, the House will take up debate on demands for grants for various departments.