German Study finds India among 20 countries likely to import coronavirus

German Study finds India among 20 countries likely to import coronavirus

Agency News

India is among 20 countries likely at risk of importing the coronavirus (2019-nCoV), according to a study by Germany's Humboldt University and Robert Koch Institute.

An extensive computational/mathematical model for "expected global spread of the novel coronavirus" found India ranked 17th on a list of countries most likely to import the deadly virus that has killed over 800 and infected nearly 40,000 others in mainland China alone.

According to the study, conducted by analysing air traffic patterns connecting 4,000 airports worldwide - with over 25,000 direct connections between them - the "relative import risk" for India was found to be 0.219 per cent.

Delhi's Indira Gandhi International Airport had a localised relative import risk of 0.066 per cent, with Mumbai's Chhatrapati Shivaji Airport at 0.034 per cent and Kolkata's Netaji Subhash Chandra Bose Airport at 0.020 per cent. Other airports in that list include Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad and Kochi.

The study defines "relative import risk" as the percentage of infected individuals who may be travelling from an affected area - in this case China - with another country - in this case India - as their final destination.

There have been three cases of coronavirus in India; all three were reported from Kerala and all were students who returned from China's Wuhan city - the epicentre of the outbreak - last month. In addition the state has put over 2,000 others under surveillance for possible exposure.