The sluggish pace of monsoon has further delayed its onset over Kerala to June 7, a private weather forecaster has said, revising its earlier arrival date.
Skymet, the forecaster, had earlier said the monsoon would reach Kerala, commencing the four-month rainfall season in the country, on June 4 with an error margin of plus or minus two days.
Present weather conditions indicate the onset would be now around June 7, with an error margin of plus or minus 2 days, Skymet said.The India Meteorological Department has said the expected arrival over Kerala could happen on June 6, with an error margin of plus or minus four days.
'The dynamics of monsoon keep changing. So far not even one out of the three criteria needed for declaring the onset of monsoon has been met. In fact, it would take some more days for conditions to become favourable for the same,’said G P Sharma, president, meteorology and climate change of Skymet Weather.
He pointed out three main reasons for the sluggish pace; there has been a low pressure area off the Somalia coast on the Horn of Africa, which is governing the wind pattern. The system has taken away the moisture and restricting the stream of westerly winds over western Arabian Sea from reaching Kerala.
An anti-cyclone a high pressure system making the air more dense over central Arabian Sea is pushing northerly winds that too are blowing along the west Coast. These winds are not instrumental in giving rains over the coast, Sharma said.
The Somali jet phenomenon too is very important for the monsoon surge.Somali Jet is the core of strong winds that originate from Kenya, cross the equator as a part of cross-equatorial flow while blowing along the Somali coast and finally entering the Indian Ocean Region and moving towards Kerala.This pattern has not been established so far, Sharma said.