Kozhikode, May 22 : Even as the exit poll results, by and large, pointing a return of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) regime at the Centre and a near-clean sweep by the United Democratic Front (UDF) in Kerala, the two political parties that would be worrying most on account of their pathetic performance coinciding with a degradation in their political status as National Party would be the Communist Party of India (Marxist) and the Communist Party of India (CPI).
And if the predictions would translate into a reality on Thursday, it is not just the number of seats that the CPI(M) and the CPI would win in the 2019 Lok Sabha election that would matter for these two parties, but their status as a National party which would be worrying them more for losing ground.
According to the norms prescribed by the Election Commission of India, as prescribed in the Election Symbols (Reservation and Allotment) Order, 1968, the pre-requisite for any political party to be recognised as a National Party are: (1) The party wins two percent seats in the Lok Sabha elections (11 seats) from at least three states. (2) At the general elections to the Lok Sabha or Legislative Assembly, the party polls six percent of votes in four States and in addition wins four Lok Sabha seats (3) A party gets recognition as a State party in four or more states.
The indications, even prior to the polling, as well as that came out in post-election exit poll, the CPI(M) is most unlikely to win in more than four seats in Kerala. The CPI on the other hand is unlikely to win any of the four seats where its candidates had contested.
According to sources, the CPI(M) might win, at the most, two to four seats, one or two from Tamil Nadu and West Bengal. Even this would fetch the party a total of 8 MPs to the Lok Sabha, whereas it needs 11 MPs to retain its status as a National Party. The CPI also is most unlikely to make anywhere near the 11-MP mark as to fulfil the National party norms.
And, the second and third norms are quite an unlikely possibility for both the parties, as things stand now. This makes both the CPI(M) and CPI unable to satisfy any of the three conditions mentioned in the Election Symbols (Reservation and Allotment) Order. This would mean that post the election results tomorrow, the CPI(M) and the CPI is all- likely to lose its pride as a National Party and might shrink its existence as a State party in Kerala. (UNI)