The day the India Met Department made an optimistic prediction on a near-normal monsoon, an alert has been sounded about an ‘active’ western disturbance moving along the North-West India borders.
This 'western disturbance' has been classified as ‘active’ or ‘intense’ depending on its capacity to set up thunderstorms, hailstorms, high winds or heavy rain. Such a system's arrival in North-West and adjoining Central India after a lull comes at a time when it is least needed by harassed farmers and wished away just ahead of the harvest.
This disturbance lay over East Iran and neighbourhood on Monday and is expected to move east-northeast across Afghanistan, Pakistan and North-West India by Wednesday.
An induced cyclonic circulation has developed over South-West Rajasthan and neighbourhood on Monday under its influence, which would be the principal creator of weather. This phenomenon will pump in moisture from the Arabian Sea as well as the Bay of Bengal, which indicates its size and reach.
Under its influence light scattered rain/thundershower would occur over Jammu and Kashmir and isolated over Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand.