The South-West monsoon, which has refused to take leave of the Indian peninsula, has delivered mostly excess rainfall for the region during the first 15 days of October.
The October 15-20 period is the normal window for the reverse North-East monsoon to set in over the South Peninsula but there is no sign as yet of that happening.
The remnant South-West monsoon continues to be active over large parts, except West and North-West India from where it has withdrawn, though a bit delayed.
The prevailing low-pressure area in the Central Bay of Bengal is expected to intensify into a depression or a more advanced weather system and this would further delay the North-East monsoon.
But this should not worry the Southern parts which benefits most from the North-East monsoon, as the region has already received good precipitation since October 1. Kerala alone has a negligible deficit but all the rest Met subdivisions have received either 'excess' or 'large excess' showers during the period.
Those with 'excess' precipitation are: Tamil Nadu and Puducherry (+22); Coastal Karnataka (+38); Vidarbha and Chhattisgarh (+30 each); Odisha (+22); Jharkhand (+45); and Bengal (+29).
Those with 'large excess' are: South Interior Karnataka (+98); Rayalaseema (+184); North Interior Karnataka (+101); Telangana (+91); Marathawada and Madhya Maharashtra (+102 each); and Konkan & Goa (+65).
Apart from Kerala, Coastal Andhra Pradesh found itself in the 'normal category' but with a surplus of four per cent.
The figures for the region should improve with the expected rain from the prevailing 'low' and the depression likely developing from it.
Meanwhile the IMD has declared that the prevailing low-pressure area in the Central Bay of Bengal becomes 'marked', the first stage of its calibrated intensification as a likely depression.
Earlier, the way had been apparently cleared for the 'low' as a competing weather system in the South China Sea, an erstwhile typhoon, ended its run over the Vietnam coast.
The IMD has lately put a watch for another 24 hours for the well-marked 'low' to intensify as it moves north-west looking at the North Andhra Pradesh and South Odisha coasts.