Hyderabad, May 15: The onset of southwest monsoon over Kerala this year is likely to be slightly delayed by four days as compared to normal date of onset on June 1. The onset may be on June 5 with a model error of ± 4 days, India Meteorological Department (IMD) said in a statement on Friday.
The initial monsoon rain is experienced over south Andaman Sea and the monsoon winds then advance in a north-westwards across the Bay of Bengal. As per the new normal dates of monsoon onset/progress, the southwest monsoon advances over the Andaman Sea around May 22.
At present, a well-marked low-pressure area lies over southeast Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood. It is very likely to concentrate into a depression over the same region during the next 12 hours and further intensify into a cyclonic storm over central parts of south Bay of Bengal by May 16 evening.
Associated with this event, conditions are likely to become favourable for advance of southwest monsoon into Andaman Sea, Andaman and Nicobar Islands and some parts of southeast Bay of Bengal, during the next 48 hours. The past data suggests that there is no association of the date of monsoon advance over the Andaman Sea either with the date of monsoon onset over Kerala or with the seasonal monsoon rainfall over the country. In 2019, the forecast onset date of southwest monsoon is June 6 but the actual onset date was on June 8. (UNI)