The South-west monsoon is all set to hit the Kerala coast on June 6. Kerala, which receives the first rain of the season, will witness a five-day delay, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
The State which witnessed rain fury last year, leading to a devastating flood, is likely to have below normal rain this season.
According to weather forecast studies, the monsoon is expected to start under the shadow of the El Nino (an irregularly occurring and complex series of climatic changes leading to unusually warm, nutrient-poor water off northern Peru and Ecuador, resulting in reversal of wind patterns which can cause unseasonal heavy rain in some areas and drought in others).
The IMD forecast on Wednesday said that this year, the statistical model forecast suggests that the monsoon onset over Kerala was likely to be slightly delayed. It is normal for the monsoon to make a landfall in Kerala on June 1. The season is expected to stay for around four months.
In the normal course, it takes around 45 days for the monsoon to cover the entire country. However, there was a peculiar phenomenon last year when the rains made the landfall on Kerala coast on May 29 and spread across the country nearly 15 days ahead of the normal course.
According to the IMD assessment, conditions were turning favourable for advance of southwest monsoon over the southern part of Andaman Sea, Nicobar Islands and adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal during May 18-19.
Private weather agency Skymet said the monsoon would hit the Kerala coast on June 4, with an error margin of two days, and was likely to be below normal.