New Delhi, May 14 : Monsoon is likely to arrive on time and will hit Kerala on June 4 with a variation of two days, private weather forecasting and agri risk monitoring company Skymet said on Tuesday.
"Monsoon 2019 seems to make a timely onset. However, weather models are indicating towards a weak onset over the Indian subcontinent, resulting in a sluggish start to Monsoon 2019," it said.
The arrival of Monsoon over Andaman and Nicobar Islands will be on May 22, with an error margin of +/- 2 days.
Southwest Monsoon 2019 is likely to make onset over Kerala on June 4, with an error margin of +/- 2 days. Simultaneously, covering some parts of Northeast India as well. This will be preceded by intense pre-Monsoon rains over Kerala.
Monsoon will cover the whole of the country by mid-July.
“All the four regions are going to witness lesser than normal rainfall, this season. East and Northeast India and central parts will be poorer than Northwest India and South Peninsula. Onset of Monsoon will be around June 4. It seems that initial advancement of Monsoon over Peninsular India is going to be slo,” Jatin Singh, Skymet managing director, said in a company release.
In its forecast last month, Skymet predicted below normal rains to the tune of 93 per cent (with an error margin of +/- 5%) of long period average (LPA).
The average or normal rainfall in the country is defined between 96 and 104 per cent of a 50-year average for the entire four-month monsoon season.