PETALING JAYA: Malaysia has been passing through the “acceleration phase” related to the increase in Covid-19 infections and that this could peak by the middle of April, a research report indicated.
The research house of the JP Morgan, an American multinational investment bank and financial services holding company, says that the acceleration phase of the curve will last for only the next 1½ to two weeks before moving into the accumulation stage, when the overall infection growth rate slows down to between 100 and 250.
“We expect the peak infection to be by the middle of April, at approximately 6,300 cases, ” the study said based on its assumptions on three factors: sample population, secondary infection rate (RO) and mortality assumptions.
It said that Malaysia’s virus test per million is 482 which is four to 81 times higher compared with the other South East Asian countries at six to 109 tests per million population and even higher than several European Union countries.
And this suggested that the country has relatively better positioning to contain the virus diffusion process, it said. Regarding with the mortality rate, the study points to the better prospects: “We believe the government’s actions are proving effective in curbing the spread and intensity of the epidemic. Mortality rates in Malaysia are low”.
JP Morgan said the strategy could result in higher reported infection numbers, but it was confident of milder development and mortality.
Based on the restrictions put upon the people in Malaysia, JP Morgan said it assumed that the country’s size of community spread level would be relatively small moving forward compared with European countries.