United Nations, Feb 5: The ongoing trade war between United States and China is expected to boost the Indian economy with a rise of 3.5 per cent in exports, according to a UN study.
Apart from India, other countries that are expected to benefit the most from this trade war are European Union members, it said. The trade tensions which erupted in early 2018, when China and the US imposed tariffs worth around $50 billion on each other’s goods will create a $70 billion growth in the new bloc with Australia gains 4.6 per cent, Brazil 3.8 per cent, Philippines 3.2 per cent, and Viet Nam 5 per cent.
The trade dispute between China and the United States could have “massive” implications on the global economy unless it is resolved, United Nations experts said. Meanwhile, Japan and Canada will see exports increase by more than $20 billion each.
Although these figures do not represent a large slice of global trade, which was worth $17 trillion in 2017 for some countries, like Mexico, the increase in exports will amount to a six per cent rise in exports overall.
But the UNCTAD study also warns that the spat could hit East Asian producers the hardest, with a projected $160 billion contraction in the region’s exports unless discussions between China and the US are resolved before the March deadline.
The study also underlines the “common concern” that trade disputes have an unavoidable impact on the “still fragile” global economy, particularly on developing, commodity-rich countries that are dependent on exports.
“One major concern is the risk that trade tensions could spiral into currency wars, making dollar-denominated debt more difficult to service,” the report adds. (UNI)