Global growth may be cut by up to 0.4 pc: ADB

Global growth may be cut by up to 0.4 pc: ADB

Agency News

New Delhi, Apr 17: The Coronavirus outbreak is likely to have a global impact of 77 billion dollar to 347 billion dollar or 0.1 per cent to 0.4 per cent of world GDP, according to a study by the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

Two-thirds of the impact will be felt by China, the epicentre of the Covid- outbreak, the survey said. The outbreak will have a significant impact on developing Asian economies through numerous channels, including sharp declines in domestic demand, lower tourism and business travel, trade and production linkages, supply disruptions and health effects, the study said.

In a moderate scenario, where precautionary behaviours and restrictions such as travel bans start easing three months after the outbreak intensified and restrictions were imposed in late January, global losses could reach 156 billion dollar or 0.2 percent of global GDP.

China would account for 103 billion dollar of those losses- or 0.8 percent of its GDP. The rest of developing Asia would lose 22 billion dollar or 0.2 percent of its GDP, the ADB observed.

ADB chief economist Yasuyuki Sawada maintained " There are many uncertainties about Covid- 19, including its economic impact. This requires the use of multiple scenarios to provide a clearer picture of potential losses."

" We hope this analysis can support governments as they prepare clear and decisive responses to mitigate the human and economic impacts of this outbreak," the economist remarked.

" The demand shocks can spill over to other sectors and economies via trade and production linkages. Tourism arrivals and receipts in many developing Asian economies are expected to decline sharply," the economist commented. (UNI)