The current slowdown in the Indian economy is cyclical and growth will pick up in one or two years, the former RBI Governor, Mr. Bimal Jalan said on Sunday.
He said said the government has already announced many reforms, and it is now a question of implementation, particularly in terms of investment. 'The slowdown in the growth is cyclical. In one or two years, I am sure, there will be a turnaround,' he said.
Mr. Jalan also pointed out that the situation today is very different from 1991 when the country faced a severe economic crisis on the external front. 'India is in a very strong position today, unlike in 1991. If you look at our inflation rate, it’s quite low. If you look at our reserves, it’s quite high,' he asserted.
Last month, the IMF and the Asian Development Bank had cut India’s growth forecast, citing global and domestic headwinds. According to the IMF’s latest projection, the Indian economy is estimated to grow at 7 per cent in 2019 and 7.2 per cent in 2020. The ADB had also lowered India’s GDP growth forecast to 7 per cent for the current year on the back of fiscal shortfall concerns.
Asked why the private sector still not investing, Mr. Jalan said, 'It may be due to post-demonetisation effect or may be they were waiting for (Lok Sabha) election results.'
On overseas sovereign borrowings, he said they should be long term. 'The government has already announced that it (overseas borrowings) will be for 5-20 years, it should not be for short term,' the former chairman of the Expenditure Management Commission said.
The Union Finance Minister, Mrs. Nirmala Sitharaman, in the Budget for 2019-20 had announced that the government would start raising a part of its gross borrowing programme from external markets in foreign currencies.